![]() NY Times, August 5, 2012, Political Pollsters Struggle to Get the Right Cell Number.We asked Scott Keeter, the Pew Research Center's director of survey research, to explain the issues at stake and give us his preliminary thoughts. The Times, citing concerns about the dearth of high-quality, non-partisan survey data, particularly at the state level, says it plans to include YouGov results as part of "a diverse suite of surveys employing diverse methodologies." While panels have long been used by market researchers, they're relatively new in the opinion-research field, and views on them are sharply divided. YouGov, a U.K.-based research firm founded in 2000, uses such panels rather than traditional telephone surveys the panel the Times and CBS are using has more than 100,000 members. The New York Times and CBS News made big news in the polling world this weekend when they announced that they will begin using online survey panels from YouGov as part of their election coverage. Pew, July 28, 2014, Q/A: What the New York Times' polling decision means.FiveThirtyEight, August 25, 2014, Is The Polling Industry In Stasis Or In Crisis? Essay on polling accuracy by one of the top analysts, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.Research Group - includes state-by-state polls Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia'sĬenter for Politics - insightful data-based analyses. Leonard.Įlliott's Daily Election Projections - summarizes PredictWise - aggregates, analyzes, and creates predictions, by David M.and some of them try to predict the Electoral College Vote outcomeĮlection Consortium - Prof. Monkey Cage - Commentary on political science and political issues.Wonkblog - social, economic, political, urban analyses.Report - a collection of recent surveys from Politics (Center for the People & the Press).Research Center - Some of the best in-depth He moved it to the New York Times and it's now independent. Nate Silver started his meta-analysis site in 2008. Presidential Election Center: You can customize this to get the raw horse-race, past election trends, or breakdowns by demographic groups.Mark Blumenthal - one of the top pollsters & analysts.Political Poll Trends, Charts and Analysis Polling horse race, nationally and in battleground Links to current political news and analyses, plus The Cook Political Report's Map and predictions.Princeton Election Consortium Electoral Map.Pre-Election maps (These are predictions, based on polling & other data, of how the states are likely to go, and therefore, how the electoral college is likely to go).Election maps (Final maps won't be available till after the election.(If some of them don't open from these links, Highlights from the Facebook page: Polit Soc. The Lens maps of Louisiana Primaries voting: here.CNN exit polls for the Primaries, state by state: here.Indicates how surprising the results were to most political professionals. Polls giving us accurate readings of voter preferencesĭramatic change in the New York Times' election model forecast as election night wore on. The campaigns maneuver to bring "their" issues ![]() Percentage of each group actually votes: what's theirĬampaign's "ground game" of getting out theĭo the different issues play? Which issue helps whichĬandidate, which social groups respond to which issues, Party loyalists, etc., etc.)? Plus how big is each Support (age, gender, religion, race, region, In my "Political Sociology" class: As you read this material, That Synthesize Polling & Predict Electoral CollegeĪrticles in the Press: Highlights from the FB page (Note: Some of the sections have materials carried over from previous elections and given how the web works, there could be dead links. ![]() The present page will have mostly links to information sources (polling sites, news analysis sites, methods sites) and some links from past elections that are still informative. (And if you know how to run Facebook pages, I'm always happy for advice on how to do it better!) You can subscribe to it, "like" it, or "friend" it, and then you'll see new stories on your own Facebook newsfeed. This will be easier for me than editing the html on this page, and it will let you click through to links that may otherwise be restricted. I'm putting most of the election articles on a Facebook page: Polit Soc.
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